Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model     

Matthieu?LengaigneEmail author  Eric?Guilyardi  Jean-Philippe?Boulanger  Christophe?Menkes  Pascale?Delecluse  Pete?Inness  Jeff?Cole  Julia?Slingo 《Climate Dynamics》2004,23(6):601-620

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.  相似文献   

Assessing market and non-market costs of freshwater flooding due to climate change in the community of Fredericton, Eastern Canada     

Van Lantz  Ryan Trenholm  Jeff Wilson  William Richards 《Climatic change》2012,110(1-2):347-372

There is a general consensus that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of freshwater flooding in many parts of the world. Communities prone to such flooding have struggled to understand the manner in which this will affect them (in both economic and social terms) and the appropriate way to adapt. In this study, we conduct a case-study investigation into the costs of freshwater flooding due to climate change along the Saint John River in Fredericton, NB, Canada. We develop a four-step framework that combines extreme event analysis, downscaled general circulation models, hydrologic analysis, and the contingent valuation method. Using this framework, together with primary data on a 2005 flooding event, we estimate market and non-market annual average flood damage under a number of climate and population scenarios. We find that non-market costs can represent up to 50% of total household costs of flooding events, and 23–42% of the total costs of flooding due to climate change, depending on the different climate and population scenarios considered. Incorporating such costs into flood adaptation planning may substantially increase support for active adaptation activities, especially in ‘worst case’ climate scenarios.  相似文献   

Radio-continuum study of the Nearby sculptor group galaxies. Part 1: NGC 300 at λ=20 cm     

Timothy J. Galvin  Miroslav D. Filipović  Evan J. Crawford  Graeme Wong  Jeff L. Payne  Ain De Horta  Graeme L. White  Nick Tothill  Danica Drašković  Thomas G. Pannuti  Caleb K. Grimes  Benjamin J. Cahall  William C. Millar  Seppo Laine 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2012,340(1):133-142

A series of new radio-continuum (λ=20 cm) mosaic images focused on the NGC?300 galactic system were produced using archived observational data from the VLA and/or ATCA. These new images are both very sensitive (rms?=60 μJy) and feature high angular resolution (<10?″). The most prominent new feature is the galaxy’s extended radio-continuum emission, which does not match its optical appearance. Using these newly created images a number of previously unidentified discrete sources have been discovered. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a joint deconvolution approach to imaging this complete data-set is inferior when compared to an immerge approach.  相似文献   

Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework     

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  Jeff Warburton  Tom J. Coulthard 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(10):1981-2003

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.  相似文献   

Environments,Natures, and Social Theory: Toward a Critical Hybridity,by Damian F. White,Alan P. Rudy,and Brian J. Gareau,eds.     

Jeff Rose 《社会与自然资源》2018,31(4):508-510

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Developing and Sequencing Community Engagement and Experiential Education: A Case Study of Urban Geography Teaching and Research     

Jeff Rose 《The Professional geographer》2018,70(2):305-310

Community engagement curricula and course design can provide substantial experiences for both community members and participating students. Using a case study approach, this research focuses on four steps in this process: initial community relationship forming, engaging in community service, transitioning to civic engagement, and developing a community-based research program. Narrative examples from student course evaluations position these community-based experiences as transformative for multiple parties. Institutional structures are presented as helpful entrees to engagement for students, while noting that community relationships provide contextualized, powerful, and meaningful relationships, supporting recommendations for emerging and existing community engagement programs.  相似文献   

Multiple Point Metrics to Assess Categorical Variable Models     

Jeff B. Boisvert  Michael J. Pyrcz  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Natural Resources Research》2010,19(3):165-175

Geostatistical models should be checked to ensure consistency with conditioning data and statistical inputs. These are minimum acceptance criteria. Often the first and second-order statistics such as the histogram and variogram of simulated geological realizations are compared to the input parameters to check the reasonableness of the simulation implementation. Assessing the reproduction of statistics beyond second-order is often not considered because the “correct” higher order statistics are rarely known. With multiple point simulation (MPS) geostatistical methods, practitioners are now explicitly modeling higher-order statistics taken from a training image (TI). This article explores methods for extending minimum acceptance criteria to multiple point statistical comparisons between geostatistical realizations made with MPS algorithms and the associated TI. The intent is to assess how well the geostatistical models have reproduced the input statistics of the TI; akin to assessing the histogram and variogram reproduction in traditional semivariogram-based geostatistics. A number of metrics are presented to compare the input multiple point statistics of the TI with the statistics of the geostatistical realizations. These metrics are (1) first and second-order statistics, (2) trends, (3) the multiscale histogram, (4) the multiple point density function, and (5) the missing bins in the multiple point density function. A case study using MPS realizations is presented to demonstrate the proposed metrics; however, the metrics are not limited to specific MPS realizations. Comparisons could be made between any reference numerical analogue model and any simulated categorical variable model.  相似文献   

On a power series solution to the Boussinesq equation     

Aleksey S. Telyakovskiy  Gastão A. Braga  Satoko Kurita  Jeff Mortensen 《Advances in water resources》2010

For certain initial and boundary conditions the Boussinesq equation, a nonlinear partial differential equation describing the flow of water in unconfined aquifers, can be reduced to a boundary value problem for a nonlinear ordinary differential equation. Using Song et al.'s (2007) [7] approach, we show that for zero head initial condition and power-law flux boundary condition at the inlet boundary, the solution in the form of power series can be obtained with Barenblatt's (1990) [2] rescaling procedure applied to the power series solution obtained in Song et al. (2007) [7] for the power-law head boundary condition. Polynomial approximations can then be obtained by taking terms from the power series. Although for a small number of terms the newly obtained approximations may be worse than polynomial approximations obtained by other techniques, any desired accuracy can be achieved by taking more terms from the power series.  相似文献   

Comparing the transitional behaviour of kaolinite and bentonite suspension flows          下载免费PDF全文

Jaco H. Baas  James L. Best  Jeff Peakall 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(13):1911-1921

Past research has demonstrated the dramatic effects that variations in suspended clay can have on the properties of flow by producing a range of transitional flows between turbulent and laminar states, depending on clay concentration and fluid shear. Past studies have been restricted to kaolinite flows, a clay mineral that has relatively weak cohesive properties. This paper extends these studies to suspension flows of bentonite, a clay mineral that attains higher viscosities at far lower volumetric concentrations within a flow. The results show that the types of transitional flow behaviour recognized in past studies can also be found in bentonite suspension flows, but at lower suspended sediment concentrations, thus demonstrating an even more dramatic effect on flow properties, and potentially on sediment transport and resulting bed morphology, than kaolinite flows. The paper proposes new stability diagrams for the phase space of bentonite flows and compares these to past work on kaolinite suspension flows. These new data suggest that the transitional‐flow Reynolds number can be used to delineate the types of transitional flow across different clay types and assess modern and ancient clay‐suspension flows. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Does geographic location impact the survival differential between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers?     

Jeff Ching-Fu Hsieh  Susanna M. Cramb  James M. McGree  Nathan A. M. Dunn  Peter D. Baade  Kerrie L. Mengersen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(1):155-165

Although mammography screening programs aim to diagnose breast cancer at an early stage, not all tumours are detected during the regular screening examination. This study examines the influence of various characteristics, including geographical residence, on the survival between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers among participants of a public population-based breast screening program in Queensland, Australia. The investigation was performed using the linked population-based datasets from BreastScreen Queensland and the Queensland Cancer Registry for the period of 1997–2008 for women aged 40–89 years at diagnosis. A Bayesian spatial relative survival modelling approach that accommodates rare outcomes in small geographic regions was adopted, with the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo computation, to evaluate the relative excess risk of breast cancer. In the multivariate Bayesian spatial model, higher relative excess risk of mortality was observed in interval-detected cancer (RER = 1.59, 95 % credible interval = [1.33, 1.89]) compared to screen-detected cancer. Higher cancer survival among the study cohort was also observed among younger women (40–59 years), those of non-Indigenous ethnicity, with localised (stage I) tumour stage as well as those not in the work force. There was no independent association with marital status. Moreover, there was no substantive evidence of either measured geographical or latent random spatial inequalities in survival among screening participants across Queensland, meaning the higher survival for screen-detected breast cancer patients compared to interval-detected women was consistent across the state. These results provide suggestive evidence supporting the effectiveness of the BreastScreen Queensland screening program in reaching socio-economically disadvantaged women as well as those living in rural and remote areas of the state, but also highlights the need for any interval cancer awareness programs to be geographically widespread.  相似文献